What are the Chances of THAT Poker Hand?
And then there was Muffy. Muffy is usually miffed because a) she plays online poker, and b) utilizes that arcane science of mathematics . . . specifically, the branch of probabilities for hand odds.
Quite rightly, Muffy is ecstatic when her pair of sevens (spades and diamonds) turns into a sevens four-of-a-kind on a 9h, Kh, 7h, 7c flop and turn, and Unfathomably Lucky Larry goes all in on the 9 river. He must have a 9s full over 7s boat, the poor sap. Muffy hurls her equally-considerable stack into the pot. Larry beats her with a four-of-a-kind, nines, and Muffy bites her keyboard in half, in exasperation.
The likelihood of getting four of a kind itself is slim, but it happens with sufficient regularity in real-world poker play to be relatively unremarkable - against 9 other players, the possibility that there is yet another hand of quads does exist. It honestly can happen every now and then. The possibility of it happening when there are only two people at a table, on the other hand . . . well, you’re more likely to be hit by a Singer sewing machine while peeling a purple banana.
Have a look at Wikipedia for a thorough look at the numbers game.
Online, however, weird things happen. One of the reasons for this has to do with the absence of true chance in computers. Subsequently, online games have to fake chance . . . such as the order of shuffled cards . . . through random number generation. And a string of random numbers is only as good as its seed.
A patron who suspected a pattern in computer-drawn Keno numbers in the Casino de Montreal confirmed his theory by entering the numbers into his own computer, with which he noted a daily, predictable sequence of numbers, and thereupon bet accordingly.
Some $600,000 later, the casino investigated and discovered that their random number generator, seeded by an internal clock, reset after power interruptions when a cleaner nightly unplugged it to plug in his vacuum. When the system was again powered up, the carpeting was clean, and the same numeric sequence was generated.
Poker rooms generally use software algorithms - typically based on the computer’s clock - to generate 52-card ’shuffled’ decks. This, however, does not come even close to representing the outcome of real-world shuffles.
In real life, there are 52! (that is,
10,783,978,666,860,260,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 . . . give or take) unique shuffles possible. That’s 10.8 novemdecillion.
Online, however, several factors reduce the number of possible shuffles. A 32-bit processor, for instance, is limited to generating 32-bit seeds . . . only 4.2 billion of them. This is a considerable reduction from the above figure. 64-bit processors can generate 18.4 or so quintillion unique numbers, still a far cry from a human dealer.
The useage of a system clock to seed a number sequence further reduces the number of possible unique shuffles; there are only so many milliseconds (just over 86 million) in a day.
Cigital, Inc. noted the above, and - taking an algorithm widely used less than ten years ago - showed not only how limited online shuffling was at the time, but was itself able to repeatedly predict which of the limited card shuffle sequences was in use for any round if five cards were visible.
Muffy, it would appear, had a point.
Cigital’s paper, How We Learned to Cheat at Online Poker: A Study in Software Security, shook up the online poker industry. Its recommendations were noted and employed . . . but while algorithms and hardware have improved, Muffy (and other online players) will notice unlikely hand combinations with some regularity until computers can generate 52! unique combinations without breaking a digital sweat.
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The Poker Blog » How To Lose Your Online Poker Bankroll - 15 Easy Steps
October 4th, 2006 at 10:57 pm
[…] (1) Don’t pay attention to the game. Watch TV at the same time, or talk to friends or text chat with other players.(2) Don’t pay attention, part 2. Don’t take notes on your poker games. As Kerry Mann points out in the article linked to, taking notes on all of your games helps you avoid making the same errors. But you don’t want to do that.(3) Play every single hand, no matter how bad. Phil Hellmuth calls this type of poker player a jackal.(4) Play hands randomly, or bet amounts randomly. If you’re just playing for fun or human company, stick to the home games with buddies. At least you can commiserate with people you know.(5) Go into a poker room with all of your money at the same time. I never take in more than 25-50% of my present bankroll. Some people take even less – as little as $30 (something Kerry Mann, linked to above, advocates. Kerry’s site says he earns an average of about $43/hour, so maybe you should pay him a visit.)(6) Ignore the odds on your hand. This kind of goes with steps 3 + 4 above. Some hands just shouldn’t be played, unless you are playing No Limit, and are in a tournament. But that’s not whate we’re talking about. If you want help with calculating your odds, read the articles about card odds on this site, and/or download your copy of Pokerbility software, compatible with several poker rooms. In fact, if you’re signed up with one of the accepted rooms, the software is free.(7) Play non-stop without food or breaks. Texas Hold’em in particular is a game of mostly logic and skill, as are other poker games. You do need to give your brain a break.(8) Get greedy. Win a lot a money and think that you’re invincible. You either end up playing too long and losing money, or getting cocky and playing bad hands. If you want to make money, take your profits and losses and move on to another game. Treat it like a business, and, in the words of Kenny Rogers, know when to hold’em, know when to fold’em.(9) Get greedy, part 2. Play multiple games at once. Before you’re ready. There are a couple of advanced players out there who have two or more large computer screens with multiple games going at the same time. They actually turn a profit. But they are at the stage where they can do this. Pay attention to your current, single game, then work up to multiples. (10) Go on tilt.. It happens so predictably, it’s frightening. If you lose a big chunk of your stack in one bad hand, don’t go all in with the remainder on the next hand. It is possible to recover from a big hit—if I can do it, you can, too. Take stock and use your brain, not your frustration. (11) Take it personally. Yes, when an opponent bets the exact amount of your stack, he or she is targeting you. Don’t rise to the bait; big-stacked players like to play mop-up. Patiently build your stack and wait until you have something viable before going up against them. (12) Play the remarkably-rising pre-flop lottery. The worst possible odds are pre-flop odds. If anyone bets big pre-flop, they may have a great pair, or an A-K suited . . . who knows? But a pair of aces loses to three twos, and it often isn’t ‘til the river before a given hand’s winner is truly decided. (13) Get sidetracked (or, take it personally, part 2). If you think someone’s bluffing, it’s quite possible; bluffing’s one of the best ways to increase your stack. But don’t bet on it. If you have a pair, there’s a flush draw on the table, and your opponent is betting like mad, there’s an excellent chance your opponent has a flush. Don’t bet all your chips trying to ‘out’ a bluffer, or you may find yourself an ‘observer’ instead of a player. (14) Hold on to that wonderful hand. A great mixed straight is beaten by the lowest flush. Even if you have an A,K,Q,J and 10 (clubs and spades), if four hearts are on the table, you have most likely lost. By all means, check, but betting hard here would be suicide. (15) Take an opponent’s advice. […]